Oil explodes past $112 as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes global supply. The geopolitical risk premium is historically unprecedented. Signal: LONG (Breakout Momentum)
6 Major Levels:
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$150.00 (Resistance – Tail-Risk Target)
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$129.13 (Resistance – Macro Liquidity Magnet / 2022 Highs)
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$119.54 (Resistance – Year-to-Date High Target)
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$112.08 (Current Active Price)
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$104.70 (Support – Breakout Ledge)
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$77.62 (Support – Macro Double-Bottom Neckline)
April Price Prediction and Forecast:
This is the epicenter of the current global financial shock. With nearly 20% of global oil supply blocked by the Strait of Hormuz closure and the US deadline expiring tomorrow, the algorithmic pricing models for WTI are breaking. The market is not trading on supply and demand fundamentals; it is trading on pure kinetic warfare tail-risks.
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Probabilities: 76% probability of slicing through $120 based on derivatives positioning; 24% chance of a diplomatic resolution causing a violent crash back to $95.
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April Prediction: Until physical tankers move freely, the price will not drop. We anticipate WTI crude to test the $119.54 year-to-date highs, with a strong possibility of running the stops above $129 if the conflict broadens.
