As we hit November 21, 2025, the forex and commodities arenas are a whirlwind of shifting sentiments. The US Dollar is clawing back ground amid Fed hesitation on rate cuts, while commodities like gold and oil face headwinds from easing geopolitics and supply gluts.
Live prices from top sites show EUR/USD at 1.1542 (up 0.12%), USD/JPY at 157.18 (down 0.20%), gold dipping to $4,027.74 (down 0.79%), and Brent oil at $62.47 (down 1.44%). Traders are eyeing delayed US data releases post-shutdown for the next big move.
Dollar’s Hesitant Comeback: Hedging Rush Hits a Pause
Greenback steadies as investors rethink aggressive bets.
Investor hedging against the dollar has slowed dramatically, according to traders, supporting a potential recovery for the USD. BNY client data reveals reduced dollar hedging flows, as the market digests Fed’s cautious stance on cuts amid persistent inflation. This comes after the DXY hovered around 100.24 earlier, with EUR/USD slipping to 1.1542 and USD/JPY testing 157.18. The slowdown reflects broader uncertainty from the US government shutdown’s data delays, pushing safe-haven demand. Analysts see room for USD strength if upcoming jobs figures surprise positively.
Yen Under Siege: BOJ’s Dovish Stance Fuels Carry Trades
Japan’s currency weakens as rate hike hopes fade.
The yen hit a 9.5-month low against the dollar, with USD/JPY climbing to 157.18 amid Japan’s fiscal woes and BOJ’s reluctance to tighten. Finance Minister Katayama voiced alarm over volatility, but carry trades thrive with elevated US yields. This follows Q3 GDP contraction, pressuring JPY crosses. Traders brace for intervention if 160 levels breach, while euro and risk currencies gain on shutdown resolution hopes.
Gold’s Shine Dims: Fed Doubts Weigh on Bullion
Precious metal retreats from highs amid dollar firmness.
Gold prices fell to $4,027.74, down 0.79% daily, as traders weigh Fed minutes showing no rush for December cuts. Despite earlier gains from job data surprises, a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical risks triggered profit-taking. Comex settled at $4,077.70, with ANZ noting investor doubt. Long-term, Asian demand could support rebounds, but $4,000 support looms if risk appetite surges.
Oil’s Slippery Slope: Peace Talks and Supply Glut Hammer Prices
Crude tumbles on reduced risk premiums.
Brent oil slipped to $62.47 (down 1.44%), and WTI to $58.03 (down 1.64%), as US-proposed Russia-Ukraine peace talks ease tensions, slashing risk premiums. Bloomberg highlights potential surplus impacts if sanctions lift, adding to non-OPEC supply from the US and Brazil. Weak Chinese demand exacerbates the glut, with forecasts pointing to 2026 lows. Natural gas bucks the trend at $4.576 (up 1.94%).
Why the Dollar Suddenly Feels Strong Again
The DXY (US Dollar Index) is sitting at ≈100.20 today. That’s not a moonshot, but it’s a solid rebound from the lows we saw earlier this month.
What changed?
Two things:
- The Fed is in no rush to cut rates in December (market now only prices in ~33% chance, down from almost 60% a week ago).
- The longest government shutdown ever delayed all the October/November jobs data → traders have no proof the U.S. economy is slowing, so they’re pricing in “higher for longer” again.
Translation: The dollar looks attractive again, especially against Europe and Japan.
Key Trades I’m Watching Right Now
- EUR/USD – currently ~1.1540
→ My base case (55% probability): drifts down to 1.13–1.14 over the next month.
Why? The Fed will probably end at 3.75–4.00%, the ECB is heading to 2.00%. That 200 bps gap is huge.
Only way it bounces hard is if the delayed jobs report is a disaster (I put that at ~25%). - USD/JPY – currently ~157.20
→ I’m 68% confident we see 160+ before New Year’s.
Japan’s core inflation is still running hot (2.8%), but their GDP actually shrank last quarter and the BOJ is terrified of hiking.
The 10-year U.S.–Japan yield gap is the widest it’s been since the 90s (outside of the GFC). Carry-trade heaven.
Tokyo will scream, but they probably won’t intervene until 162–163. - Gold – $4,063
Real yields (10-yr TIPS) are back near +1.85%. That’s the #1 thing that hurts gold.
Fair-value models say gold “should” be closer to $3,850 right now, but central banks (especially in Asia) keep buying on dips → strong support around $4,000.
I’m staying light until real yields roll over. - Crude Oil (Brent ~$62.50)
Honestly ugly. Non-OPEC supply is exploding (Brazil +680k bpd, Guyana +320k, etc.).
Any Russia–Ukraine peace talk headlines strip out the last bit of geopolitical premium.
We’re heading into a 2.5 million barrel per day surplus in 2026. Short energy, simple as that.
Quick Portfolio Thoughts (What I’d actually do with money today)
- Long USD against AUD, NZD, and most Asian currencies
- Fund it by shorting the yen (classic carry)
- Short oil / energy equities
- Stay neutral-to-light on gold until we see the whites of the Fed pivot’s eyes
- Keep some cheap EUR/USD downside puts in case the delayed jobs data surprises soft
That’s the macro playbook as of tonight.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-subdued-dollar-firms-spotlight-fed-minutes-us-jobs-data-2025-11-19/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-20/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-november-21
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-falls-as-traders-weigh-feds-next-move-aefba649?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeFMYOjLIRQVidgwjLSH_0KgJsHvqlAkspSZvpJphLWiwP-DFq3yljY&gaa_ts=692016a8&gaa_sig=HBe2675TwuyxvM-4BlUcu67NCvCAyGVGoIe3qv7gGy9SFopS6vtQtyXlxl0SXr-ghnTCEG2jIUVQ4HTkD8aypA%253D%253D
